I am under no illusions about the likelihood that any of the recommendations below would be implemented by the current administration, but I still think it is worth reiterating the conclusions of the #PCAST 2023 working group report https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/PCAST_Extreme-Weather-Report_April2023.pdf on Extreme Weather, which I was proud to be a member of. An abridged version of the main recommendations is listed below.

1.1. U.S. climate-modeling centers (supported by NOAA, NSF, DOE, and NASA) should enhance their high-resolution modeling capabilities and state-of-the-art statistical methods to quantify annual extreme weather risks.

1.2. The White House should designate a lead agency to maintain an extreme weather data portal where observations and modeling products are regularly updated and widely accessible.

2.1. Designate an interagency group to inventory and release federal data that are useful to develop and test weather-hazard models and hazard-loss models.

2.2 NOAA, FEMA, and other agencies as the President deems necessary, should develop guidelines for measuring the accuracy of weather-hazard and hazard-loss models and promote the use of skill-scoring hazards.

2.3 Fund research on risk-assessment modeling systems that use extreme weather probabilities, weather-hazard models, and hazard-loss models to quantify the likelihood and economic costs of extreme weather events.

3.1 The White House should develop and publish a National Adaptation Plan to prepare for and mitigate increased risks from extreme weather.

3.2 Fund research on the adaptation of households, real-estate and insurance
markets, and local governments to changing climate and extreme weather risk.

In 2002, then-president George W. Bush tasked his Presidential Council of Advisors on #Science and #Technology (#PCAST) with assessing the impact of the US research and development investment. The RAND corporation conducted the review and PCAST summarized the report for the President. It later shaped his call on Congress to push legislation to support #BasicResearch even has his administration worked to cut specific ideologically unpalatable research.

1/3

As of today, the reports of the #PCAST committee I served on are no longer available on the whitehouse.gov web page. As a temporary solution, my former PCAST colleague, Eric Horvitz, has made them available on his page: https://www.erichorvitz.com/PCAST_reports_2020-2025.htm

#PCAST has released its last two products of its term. Firstly, we have completed a report on the social and behavioral sciences, and how it can create systematic, data-driven policy creation, implementation, and evaluation that measurably improves the outcomes of such policies: https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2025/01/15/pcast-releases-report-on-the-value-of-social-sciences-in-improving-american-lives/

Secondly, we wrote a final letter to the President outlining what we see as the key scientific opportunities and challenges in the near-to-medium term, which include (but is not limited to) advances in the scientific understanding (across many disciplines) of aging, the reinvention of the energy grid, the deployment of AI to accelerate scientific discovery, and ensuring a nutritious and environmentally sustainable food supply. https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2025/01/15/pcast-releases-letter-on-future-opportunities-for-u-s-science-and-technology/

[Note: these links will be archived at a new location in a few weeks. Readers intersted in PCAST reports may wish to download them ahead of the transition.]

It has personally been a great honor to have been a member of this advisory council, and to see what high quality scientifically informed policy discussion could be. It seems unilkely that many of our recommendations will be directly implemented by the next administration, but PCAST reports have often influenced other agencies and institutions in less obvious ways, especially over time. (Several recommendations from President Obama's PCAST, for instance, were only implemented in the current administration.)

This seems an appropriate time to repost the #PCAST report on enhancing prediction of extreme weather events: https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2023/04/24/pcast-releases-report-on-enhancing-prediction-and-protecting-communities-against-extreme-weather-risk/ . (I was one of the members of the working group tasked to produce this report.)

In principle there is ample public and private data sets available that would allow the public to accurately assess the potential human and economic impacts of extreme weather events, such as the fires currently active in Los Angeles a few miles from where I live and work; but there needs to be a coordinated effort, led by the federal government, to synthesize the data, and create benchmarks to standards to evaluate, and incentivize the creation of, high quality catastrophe models.

The National Medal of Science this year was awarded to fourteen scientists, including Ingrid Daubechies (an informal mentor of mine in graduate school), Cynthia Dwork, and my #PCAST colleague John Dabiri. Congratulations to all! https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2025/01/03/president-biden-honors-nations-leading-scientists-technologists-and-innovators/

In one of the final reports of this #PCAST, we have released a report on strengthening groundwater resilience in the US. Groundwater is an important resource for agriculture, drinking water, and industry, but many aquifers are being depleted faster than their natural recharge. Our knowledge of the precise state of these aquifers is quite incomplete. While the management of groundwater resources is primarily the responsibility of state, local, and tribal governments, we have some recommendations for ways in which the federal government can assist, in particular in creating a centralized effort to collect both federal and non-federal data, models, analysis and research on groundwater resources, and to support research on more sustainable uses of these resources. The press release is at https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2024/12/14/pcast-releases-report-on-strengthening-americas-groundwater-resilience/ and the report can be found at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/PCAST-Report-on-GW_14DEC2024_Final-1.pdf

#PCAST has released a letter to the President with recommendations to strengthen the talent pool of the STEM workforce in the federal government. While there are many highly qualified federal government employees at national labs, regularity authorities, and other agencies with deep technical expertise, there are barriers to entry (or to transfer from one agency to another), especially for more junior members of the workforce, as well as a draining of talent to the private sector, particularly in well-funded areas such as AI. PCAST makes a number of technical, but still necessary, recommendations to simplify and make more flexible the federal hiring processes (for instance by making the conflict of interest rules less burdensome to comply with), and encourage more internships and fellowships, as well as collaborations with industry and academia. https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2024/10/23/pcast-releases-letter-on-expanding-federal-stem-talent/

#PCAST has released a report outlining a vision for advancing nutrition science in the US: https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2024/09/20/pcast-releases-report-on-advancing-nutrition-science/ . This is an area of science that has the potential to achieve significant improvements in public health, for instance by incentivizing changes to the food supply and in eating habits that can help prevent or mitigate diet-related diseases such as diabetes, obesity, or cardiovascular diseases; however, current federal efforts in this area were not always well coordinated, or oriented towards historical goals (such as correcting vitamin deficiencies) that are no longer the most pressing priorities. As a consequence, as part of a broader strategy (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/White-House-National-Strategy-on-Hunger-Nutrition-and-Health-FINAL.pdf) released by Biden-Harris administration in 2022, PCAST was directed to produce a report identify scientific opportunities, gaps, and priorities to advance nutrition science, with a particular emphasis on ensuring equitable access to the benefits of research.

Recommendations include improving data collection and evidence-based practices of federal nutrition programs (including, if necessary, deploying modern data science and machine learning tools), creating an interagency committee to coordinate the highly disparate federal efforts in this sector (e.g., from the USDA, FDA, and HHS), and to partner with academic, private sector, and community groups, especially with regards to increasing equitable access to nutrition initiatives.

Some recent meetings and interviews concerning #AI policy in science:

2024 US-UK Scientific Forum on science in the age of AI (jointly hosted by the National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society): https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/us-uk-forum-2024/ (I was one of the speakers, co-presenting the PCAST report on AI https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/AI-Report_Upload_29APRIL2024_SEND-2.pdf.)

AI aspirations - mostly focusing on US federal agencies vision for AI in various sectors (transportation, health, education, weather prediction, etc.) https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVq83uNTPbQSVla6Ybce5vOKUoXmGSuS5

Interview with Arati Prabhakhar (chief science advisor to the president, and co-chair of #PCAST): https://www.theverge.com/24197237/arati-prabhakar-ostp-director-tech-policy-science-ai-regulation-decoder-podcast

The National AI Research Resource #NAIRR Pilot, launched earlier this year, is holding a webinar in a few hours showcasing their work and taking questions: https://new.nsf.gov/events/nairr-pilot-partner-showcase/2024-05-21

(I spoke recently at an event in Washington DC where the first compute awards from this resource were announced, where I discussed the related #PCAST report on this topic that I co-chaired: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew_VxeW_M-c )

#PCAST is forming a new working group to determine how best to measure and manage groundwater resources in the US, which are essential for agriculture, manufacturing, and of course for drinking water, but for which we have surprisingly little quantitative understanding of. One of the first actions of the working group is to seek public input on the following questions:

* How can we enhance the timely collection of data on groundwater inventory, use, recharge, and flow across the United States to gain a whole-of-country picture of the nation’s groundwater resources?
* How can we effectively model and predict changes in the inventory, recharge, and flow of groundwater in the context of the overall water cycle and provide that information to stakeholders and decision-makers?
* How can we efficiently scale groundwater recharge while mitigating risks?
* How can we ensure clean and safe groundwater, especially for the communities that are affected most by groundwater contamination and depletion?
* How can we engage with communities to successfully ensure a sustainable supply of groundwater, including for agriculture, industry, energy, human consumption, and healthy ecosystems and biodiversity?
* What strategies and incentives can help limit groundwater over-use?

For further information on how to respond to this call for public input, see https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2024/04/25/pcast-welcomes-public-input-on-americas-groundwater-challenges

Over the past six months, the #PCAST working group in #AI that I have been co-leading with Laura Greene has been working to fulfill a tasking from part of an executive order of the President (see https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/ ) to report on the potential impacts of AI technologies on research (particularly those aimed at societal and global challenges), and what barriers exist to fully achieving the benefits of AI assistance in this space. I'm pleased to announce that the report is now complete and can be found at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/AI-Report_Upload_29APRIL2024_SEND-2.pdf (see also the press release at https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2024/04/29/pcast-releases-report-on-supercharging-research-harnessing-artificial-intelligence-to-meet-global-challenges/ ), as part of a longer list of outcomes from the executive order that can be found at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/29/biden-harris-administration-announces-key-ai-actions-180-days-following-president-bidens-landmark-executive-order/ .

In our report (the main body of which is about 40 pages in length, with a five page executive summary), we give multiple vignettes from across the sciences in which AI tools are already transforming the field. We identified three key pillars that require attention to fully benefit from this transformation: empowerment of human scientists; responsible use of AI tools; and sharing of basic AI resources. We then have five recommendations to further these goals, including the full funding of the National AI Research Resource (#NAIRR) and requiring reponsible AI use plans for any federally funded research project that uses AI tools.

A presentation of the report to PCAST, together with a question and answer session, can be found at https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/meetings/2024-meetings/