Irish Election Update

The dust is now settling on the 2024 General Election which took place on Friday. Counting didn’t start anywhere until the following morning, so in the absence of any actual results the Saturday newspapers were full of articles by Phil Space, most of them based on an exit poll that turned out not to be very accurate. It soon become clear what was going to happen. The Single Transferable Vote system does mean that counting takes a while – one constituency (Cavan-Monaghan) is yet to declare as I write this – but it is much fairer than the system used in the UK and the process is fascinating to follow. Since moving to Ireland 7 years ago, I think my two favourite spectator sports are hurling and election counts, though the former happens at a considerably faster pace than the latter!

I’ll begin with my own constituency, Kildare North, which returns 5 TDs. The chosen five are James Lawless (FF), Réada Cronin (SF), Aidan Farrelly (SD), Naoise Ó Cearúil (FF) and Joe Neville (FG). The big surprise was that Fine Gael grandee Bernard Durkan lost his seat to a younger colleague, the strategy of fielding three candidates backfired on him. At one stage it even looked like all three might be eliminated, which would have been very amusing, but it was not to be.

A lesser surprise at least to me is that Aidan Farrelly won for the Social Democrats. Catherine Murphy (SD) was top of the poll last time but has now retired. There was no guarantee that Aidan Farrrelly would hold onto her personal following, especially since a former Social Democrat turned Independent stood against him. In the end, however, Farrelly was elected quite comfortably, although with a smaller share of the vote than Catherine Murphy had achieved.

Of the two FF candidates elected, James Lawless and Naoise Ó Cearúil, the fomer is more familiar; the latter was elected to the County Council this summer and will be a new arrival in the Dáil. The Kildare North constituency has one extra TD this time because of population growth, and it went to FF who ended up with the most TDs nationally.

The successful Sinn Féin candidate was the incumbent Réada Cronin.

The wooden spoon for Kildare North went to Sean Gill of the Centre Party of Ireland, an ironic name for what is far-right splinter group of FG previously known as Renua. He received a majestic 67 votes and was eliminated on the first round. In fact, far-right candidates did very poorly not only in Kildare North but nationally. That’s a relief.

One of the fascinating things about the coverage of the election has been to see how people use their preferences. Voting is a much more nuanced thing here that it has ever been allowed to be in the UK by the electoral system there. Some of the transfers are very hard to fathom. I noticed in Kildare North, for example, that some voters put the left-wing People Before Profit first then Fine Gael second, skipping over the whole spectrum in between. I don’t understand that choice, but then I don’t have to. Folk are perfectly entitled to use their vote whichever way they wish. That’s how it works. It’s called democracy.

The big three parties look set to finish on FF 48, SF 39 and FG 38. This means that FG+FF add up to 86, which is two short of a majority. The overall outcome of the election will therefore be the Same Old Same Old government, a coalition of the two right wings of the Property Party, possibly with a smaller party to make up the numbers and to be contemptuously discarded at the next election. That fate befell the Green Party, part of the outgoing coalition, which lost 11 of its 12 TDs this time round. Labour and the Social Democrats are both on 11 TDs. Will one of them walk into the trap, or will some Independents be enough?

Sinn Féin once again failed to break the deadlock of FFG government. They have done reasonably well in terms of seats, but their share of the vote fell by about 5% since the 2020 Election but in between then and now had risen to over 30%. only to fall back recently. I suspect the party leaders will be privately relieved at where they ended up, given that a few weeks ago things looked likely to be much worse for them.

Whatever the complexion of the final coalition, it seems clear to me that we’re in for five more years of housing crisis, crumbling infrastructure, under-investment in education and public services. I don’t know what it will take for a change of government to take place. Perhaps the next (inevitable) financial crash? Or perhaps not even that. Ireland is very set in its ways, politically speaking.

It has been remarked that this election has bucked two global trends. One is the rise of the far-right, whose failure is something I am very happy about. The other is anti-incumbent feeling. I’m much more ambivalent about that because in my opinion change is long overdue. Apparently the electorate were unconvinced that change of government would really make things better here.

P.S. The turnout – just under 60% – was the lowest it has been in a General Election in Ireland since 1923. I find it saddening that 40% of those eligible did not even bother to vote.

Kildare North Candidates

The arrival of my polling card yesterday indicates that the general election in Ireland on Friday 29th November is approaching rapidly, so I thought I’d give a rundown of the 16 candidates who will appear on the ballot paper for my constituency, Kildare North.

Kildare North will return 5 TDs (Teachta Dála, or Deputies), one more than last time because of the population growth in the area. The current TDs are Réada Cronin (SF; Sinn Féin), Bernard Durkan (FG; Fine Gael), James Lawless (FF; Fianna Fáil) and Catherine Murphy (SD; Social Democrats). The latter is retiring so will not be standing at this election. The current government is a coalition of FG, FF and Green Party TDs.

The Single Transferable Vote system is used, meaning that voters have a single ballot paper on which they rank the candidates in order of preference. The candidate with the lowest number of first-preference votes is eliminated and their second preference votes redistributed. Candidates are thus progressively eliminated until the requisite number of TDs is selected.

There are three FG candidates: Bernard Durkan, Joe Neville and Evie Sammon). They are based in Maynooth, Leixlip and Celbridge respectively so are presumably hoping that local voting will work out in their favour. The idea presumably is that Bernard Durkan would be first choice in Maynooth, etc. However, I’ve already had canvassers arguing that I should put Joe Neville first. I won’t be voting for any of the candidates anyway, but I would be very amused if their decision to put three candidates forward backfired in a big way! Bernard Durkan is 79 and has been a TD since 1982. The leaflet I got from him promised “New Energy” for Kildare North. Yeah, right…

There are two FF candidates, James Lawless and Naoise Ó Cearúil; the latter was elected to the County Council this summer. I find FF indistinguishable from FG. Together or separately these two parties have governed the Republic since its creation and a change is long overdue.

The two Sinn Féin candidates are the incumbent Réada Cronin and Caroline Hogan. I haven’t seen any posters for Réada Cronin up in Maynooth, so I assume the campaign team is saving their resources for elsewhere. Maynooth is not traditionally an SF stronghold.

With Catherine Murphy not standing, the Social Democrats ran a process to select a replacement candidate, which was won by Aidan Farrelly (who actually works at Maynooth University) who is the official SD candidate. That doesn’t end the story, however. Former SD member Bill Clear is standing as an Independent because he didn’t get selected. Adding to the fact that Catherine Murphy had a considerable personal following, this looks like a bit of a mess for the Social Democrats whose vote will probaboly be reduced and split. It may be in order to capitalize on this that SF added a candidate; they only fielded one last time round.

Now we’re into the (probable) also-rans. Angela Feeney is standing for Labour. She is an active member of the Council, representing Maynooth, but it’s not clear whether she has reach over the rest of the constituency. Vincent Martin represents the Greens who haven’t previously been strong here. The Green Party in Ireland is nowhere near as left-wing as corresponding parties in the UK and elsewere. It often seems like the bicycle division of Fine Gael. Leah Whelan is standing for People Before Profit – Solidarity, the only really left-wing party satnding in Kildare North.

Then we have we have a number of generally disagreeable (to me) fringe party candidates: Una O’Connor is standing for Aontú, a reactionary splinter group previously in Sinn Féin and Sean Gill for the Centre Pary of Ireland, an ironic name for what is far-right splinter group of FG previously known as Renua. Gerry Waters is standing from the Irish Freedom Party. He was struck off the medical register for refusing to administer vaccines and has unsupportable far-right opinions on other issues. Last and by all means least is Avril Corcoran who is candidate for The Irish People, a far-right nationalist party which is part of the National Alliance of like-minded bigots.

It’s probably obvious which 11 candidates I’m not going to be voting for, but I’ll leave you to guess in what order I will rank the other 5!