What’s the opposite of conspiracy theoricism? Political chaos theoricism!

I argue that people actually overestimate the amount of control important people wield. Inasmuch there is probably more pretending to be in control than actual being in control.

Of course, a lot of mean people do mean things all the time. But they never report how many times they fail, and my view of the topic is that failure is the more common occurrence!

Neural networks can ace short-horizon predictions — but quietly fail at long-term stability.

A new paper dives deep into the hidden chaos lurking in multi-step forecasts:
Tiny weight changes (as small as 0.001) can derail predictions
Near-zero Lyapunov exponents don’t guarantee system stability
Short-horizon validation may miss critical vulnerabilities
Tools from chaos theory — like bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov analysis — offer clearer diagnostics
The authors propose a “pinning” technique to constrain output and control instability

Bottom line: local performance is no proxy for global reliability. If you care about long-horizon trust in AI predictions — especially in time-series, control, or scientific models — structural stability matters.

#AI #MachineLearning #NeuralNetworks #ChaosTheory #DeepLearning #ModelRobustness
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0893608025004514

ALLES wordt tot op de grond afgebroken #chaostheory #project2025
Directeur Amerikaanse rampenbestrijdingsdienst ontslagen, vlak voor orkaanseizoen.

Just took a break from my pooter to heave my corpulent meatsack self to my ensuite to belatedly brush my teeth after brekkie. Stooped over my handbasin, doing the doings, i realised that parts of my face were being randomly splashed, so i returned my mind from zooming along the astral plane to consider what might be happening.

Realised that i'd forgotten to turn the cold tap fully off as i began brushing, that the combo of its consequent partial valve opening, the cooler than usual day, & the local water pressure today had combined to make the resultant waterflow's #ReynoldsNumber fully turbulent, not laminar. Furthermore, the ensuing randomness of its flow in this mode was such that often it was striking the basin drain grate grills rather than falling cleanly thru the gaps, & was rebounding aka splashing. Finally, my stoop was sufficient that my face happened to be in just the right range to intersect with this mild local splashing.

These contemplative revelations pleased me. It was a nice little low-key local demonstration that no matter the pomposity, arrogance, & suicidal determination of the ridiculous human species, the principles of #physics, #thermodynamics, #fluidmechanics, & #chaostheory will always prevail.

But i expect such thoughts regularly cross the minds of most peeps as they do their routine ablutions...

RT by @EU_ScienceHub: Explore the #OceanConnections bringing to light the lives under the sea, at the @Eugreenweek 29-30 May
Artistic renderings by @KristinBergaust of @ggsanchez's mathematical models on #ChaosTheory showing at the #NaturArchy exhibition by #JRCSciArt in partnership with @iMAL

[2024-05-29 10:28 UTC]

@GhostOnTheHalfShell

You could ask @mina about your maths problem.

I don't remember a great deal about #ChaosTheory, but this:

All human groups are complex systems. All complex systems are determined by a #ChaoticAttractor.
Your pic shows the #LorenzAttractor.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory