Bedankt voor de post.
Interessant om te lezen wat kan hebben bijgedragen aan ondergang van dit unieke schip en petje af voor kapitein #Börnerm de schipper van de Sir Robert Baden Powell.
Respect ook voor Groenewoud, dat hij zich, in het kader van deze tragedie, weerhoudt van speculeren.
heise online: Urteil: Autonomy-Betrug an HP war viel kleiner https://www.heise.de/news/Urteil-Autonomy-Betrug-an-HP-war-viel-kleiner-10496584.html
Von der Kaufsumme von 11,7 Mrd. $ waren wohl „nur“ knapp eine Milliarde auf „zu optimistische Buchungen“ zurückzuführen.
#Bayesian
New on the blog: Using Bayesian tools to be a better frequentist
Turns out that for negative binomial regression with small samples, standard frequentist tools fail to achieve their stated goals. Bayesian computation ends up providing better frequentist guarantees. Not sure this is a general phenomenon, just a specific example.
https://www.martinmodrak.cz/2025/07/09/using-bayesian-tools-to-be-a-better-frequentist/
A monument to the triumph of vanity over safety?
Sunken British superyacht Bayesian is raised from the seabed.
A superyacht that sank off the coast of the Italian island of Sicily last year has been raised from the seabed by a specialist salvage team.
Seven of the 22 people on board died in the sinking, including the vessel's owner, British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter.
The cause of the sinking is still under investigation.
Vor Sizilien: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" wird geborgen
Die Bergung des 56 Meter langen Segelschiffes hatte sich mehrfach verzögert. Nun ist es an der Oberfläche. Bei ihrem Untergang starben der britische Milliardär Mike Lynch und sechs weitere Insassen.
Rewarding animals to accurately report their subjective #percept is challenging. This study formalizes this problem and overcomes it with a #Bayesian method for estimating an animal’s subjective percept in real time during the experiment @PLOSBiology https://plos.io/3HaxiuB
https://aeon.co/essays/no-schrodingers-cat-is-not-alive-and-dead-at-the-same-time
This is a pretty good article for showing how confused the interpretation of QM is. And its a good article to understand why i personally side with Bohm and Bell in thinking the pilot wave theory is the one most reasonable to believe. Because the pilot wave theory has the following quality. The theory is a mapping from initial position at time t=0 to final position at time t=1...Its deterministic, but our knowledge of the initial condition is not
#quantum #bohm #bayesian
What the report on the sinking of the #Bayesian boils down to was that the yacht was unseaworthy when it was built. Stupidly tall mast was just a vanity project - tragedy
Vorläufiger Bericht: Luxusjacht "Bayesian" sank wegen extremen Winds
Bei dem Untergang der "Bayesian" vor Sizilien kamen im vergangenen Jahr sieben Menschen ums Leben. Nun gibt ein vorläufiger Bericht Hinweise auf die Unglücksursache der Luxusjacht, die eigentlich als "unsinkbar" galt.
I am trying to get a better sense of the literature on frequentist properties of Bayesian posterior distributions - both empirical and theoretical. Do you have any recommendations on stuff I should not miss? #stats #bayesian #LitReviews
Die schwierige Bergung der Luxusjacht "Bayesian"
Eine riesige Luxusjacht sinkt im Mittelmeer: Das Unglück der "Bayesian", bei dem sieben Menschen starben, sorgte 2024 für Schlagzeilen und Spekulationen. Nun soll das Wrack geborgen werden, doch die Aktion verzögert sich.
Environmental & Anthropogenic Influences On Fire Patterns In Tropical Dry Deciduous Forests
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98051-7 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #wildfire #fire #busgfire #nvironmental #anthropogenic #influences #humanimpacts #deciduous #forests #firepatterns #spatialanalysis #tropical #ecosystems #management #tree #vegetation #spatiotemporal #hotspots #india #Satpura #tiger #reserve #ecogeography #geography #factors #parameters #drivers #temperature #precipitation #rainfall #model #modeling #bayesian #framework #slope #water #hydrology #infrastructure #mitigation #monitoring #preparedness #forestfires
https://open.substack.com/pub/thefuckingnews/p/real-trump-losing-in-the-polls-to?r=29jpsy&utm_medium=ios #MagicalTrump #RealTrump, so all you get with the #Bayesian factor is reality without the navigator, just the chaos; the illusion of randomness, the collapse and the sinking? An Emperor is no Deity, no constitution of the categories foundation, just an aimless clown deluded by the opium of his cult and the grandeur of its Nazi oligarchs. #Poll #Polls #NaziOligarchs #GreatLiars
Observations Reveal Changing Coastal Storm Extremes Around The United States
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #extremeweather #coast #coastal #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #communities #publicsafety #climatechange #stormsurge #USA #flood #flooding #risk #hazard #damage #infrastructure #cost #economics #mitigation #insurance #sealevel #SLR #sealevelrise #Bayesian #hierarchical #framework #tideguage #tide #tidal #water #hydrology #hydrography #extremes #intensity #monitoring
Hot off the press - our report on gender disparities in grant seeking at the University of Cambridge (who applies for and who gets research grant funding).
The story:
1) The structural disparities are big (not so surprising)
2) The patterns of disparity at particular grades in particular disciplines go both ways (more surprising)
#ResearchPolicy
#ResearchGrants
#GenderDifferences
#Bayesian
If you like graphs, you'll probably like it!
PyMC is in Google Summer of Code 2025!
We're excited to be part of #GSoC2025 under @NumFOCUS If you're passionate about #Bayesian stats & #OpenSource, this is your chance to contribute to #PyMC!
Deadline: April 8, 18:00 UTC
Apply now: https://www.pymc.io/blog/blog_gsoc_2025_announcement.html
After a long collaboration with @martinbiehl, @mc and @Nathaniel I’m excited to share the first of (hopefully) many outputs:
“A Bayesian Interpretation of the Internal Model Principle”
https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.00511.
This work combines ideas from control theory, applied #categorytheory and #Bayesian reasoning, with ramifications for #cognitive science, #AI/#ML, #ALife and biology to be further explored in the future.
In these fields, we come across ideas of “models”, “internal models”, “world models”, etc. but it is hard to find formal definitions, and when one does, they usually aren’t general enough to cover all the aspects these different fields consider important.
In this work, we focus on two specific definitions of models, and show their connections. One is inspired by work in control theory, and one comes from Bayesian inference/filtering for cognitive science, AI and ALife, and is formalised with Markov categories.
In the first part, we review and reformulate the “internal model principle” from control theory (at least, one of its versions) in a more modern language heavily inspired by categorical systems theory (https://www.davidjaz.com/Papers/DynamicalBook.pdf, https://github.com/mattecapu/categorical-systems-theory/blob/master/main.pdf).
6/ Thus we built upon this #Bayesian framework (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24149-x) to infer each pairwise interaction in individual-based #networks accounting for sampling effort and the inherent stochasticity of field data
Egghat НетBойне 
Greg Cocks 
