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#Reanalysis

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anlomedad<p>The promised plots. <br>I'll show data since 2003 only because only then did real measurements really kick off. Before that, measurements were so spotty with 1 in January in one year, then 3 years nothing, then 5 measurements in for example August and so on.<br>Data source for measurements is <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/NOAA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NOAA</span></a> <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-database-select/dbsearch.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-oce</span><span class="invisible">an-database-select/dbsearch.html</span></a> </p><p>The other plot is from a <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ReAnalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ReAnalysis</span></a> called EN4.2 <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download-en4-2-2.html#c14_analyses" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/do</span><span class="invisible">wnload-en4-2-2.html#c14_analyses</span></a> <br> It is based on the same NOAA data, and goes back to 1900. EN4.2 has better quality assurance than my download. And EN4.2 is able to calculate the likely values in adjacent coordinates and adjacent months. </p><p>Among other Reanalyses, EN4.2 has also been used in the newest preprint by the Dutch team around <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/vanWesten" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>vanWesten</span></a>. It sees AMOC tip in 2065 in RCP8.5 and in 2085 in RCP4.5. But it is based on biased Reanalyses and known-to-be too stable <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CMIP6</span></a>: <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.19909" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">arxiv.org/pdf/2407.19909</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>Whereas the first new preprint by van Westen's team, which tips AMOC 2037-2064, uses only real measurements of the 3 dedicated monitoring arrays in the North, tropical and South <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Atlantic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Atlantic</span></a>. <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> <br>Here, the caveat is: very short data series. </p><p>With measurements being so spotty, I only show monthly salinity 2003ff in down to 10m depth. And only from the area in the South Atlantic. Averaged on a 2 by 2 degree grid from Argentina's coast to longitude -48, and latitudes 40-48 South.</p><p>Sorry, not sorry: neither dataset shows a smoking gun. 😁<br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/FridaysForFuture" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FridaysForFuture</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ChartsForFuture" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ChartsForFuture</span></a></p>
Phil Browne<p><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Ocean</span></a> folks interested in <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/reanalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>reanalysis</span></a>, I'd like your input. I think soon I'll be asked for my views on what output <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ERA6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ERA6</span></a> should have from its ocean component. Let me know if there's anything you'd find particularly useful. (<a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SeaIce" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SeaIce</span></a> too I should add)</p>
Phil Browne<p>My day job is to improve weather forecast by using information from models and observations of the <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ocean</span></a> and <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/seaice" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>seaice</span></a> to give a better estimate of the current state of the Earth system</p><p>This means sitting at a desk coding, but also engaging with people who know a lot more than I do!</p><p>I'm currently working hard on the next gen ocean <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/reanalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>reanalysis</span></a>, to feed into <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/NWP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NWP</span></a> and hopefully <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ERA6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ERA6</span></a> soon. My focus is on <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/seaice" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>seaice</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/DataAssimilation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DataAssimilation</span></a> and coupled <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SST" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SST</span></a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/DA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DA</span></a></p><p>I moonlight as a cake tester 🍰</p>
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