Daniele de Rigo<p>8/</p><p>A clear introduction on intrinsic <a href="https://hostux.social/tags/uncertainty" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>uncertainty</span></a> in <a href="https://hostux.social/tags/ComputationalScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ComputationalScience</span></a> modelling (and epistemic humility) by Richard de Neufville (MIT <a href="https://hostux.social/tags/OpenCourseWare" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>OpenCourseWare</span></a>, Risk and Decision Analysis):</p><p>- Flaw of Averages: why central <a href="https://hostux.social/tags/OneDimensionalMetrics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>OneDimensionalMetrics</span></a> in non-trivial systems may mislead<br><a href="https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-flaw-o-f-averages-video-5/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-ri</span><span class="invisible">sk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-flaw-o-f-averages-video-5/</span></a></p><p>- unexpected surprises in the real world<br><a href="https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-forecast-always-wrong-video-1/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-ri</span><span class="invisible">sk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-forecast-always-wrong-video-1/</span></a></p><p>- Porcupine Graphs: how "often experts don't learn", think "they know better" and miss evident mental biases<br><a href="https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-porcupine-graphic-video-3/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-ri</span><span class="invisible">sk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/resources/unit-2-porcupine-graphic-video-3/</span></a></p>