Create accountLogin

Recent searches

No recent searches

Search options

Only available when logged in.
eupolicy.social is one of the many independent Mastodon servers you can use to participate in the fediverse.
This Mastodon server is a friendly and respectful discussion space for people working in areas related to EU policy. When you request to create an account, please tell us something about you.

Administered by:

Server stats:

237
active users

eupolicy.social: AboutProfiles directoryPrivacy policy

Mastodon: AboutGet the appKeyboard shortcutsView source codev4.3.6

#economy

931 posts314 participants38 posts today
Public
Linux Is Best

" Trump added 104% tariff on China. "
ChatGPT said:

If Donald Trump (or any administration) were to impose a 104% tariff on all imports from China, it would have a major impact on both the U.S. and China, as well as the broader global economy. A tariff of that magnitude would be unprecedented and would likely lead to severe consequences. Here's how this could play out:

1. Major Price Increases for U.S. Consumers
Imported Goods: China is a major source of a wide range of consumer goods, from electronics to clothing, toys, and household items. A 104% tariff would dramatically increase the prices of these goods in the U.S. For example, if a product costs $100 from China, it would now cost $204 after the tariff is applied.

Inflation: This massive increase in costs could lead to inflation, where the general price level of goods and services rises across the economy. This would hit consumers hard, especially those in lower income brackets who depend on cheaper goods.

2. Impact on U.S. Businesses
Higher Input Costs: Many U.S. companies depend on Chinese-made components for their products, especially in sectors like electronics, automobiles, and manufacturing. With a 104% tariff, the cost of these inputs would rise significantly, which could lead to higher production costs and ultimately higher prices for consumers.

Disruption to Supply Chains: Companies that rely on Chinese factories or suppliers for parts might be forced to find alternatives, potentially disrupting production. It could also lead to a delay in product launches or decreased supply of certain goods, which would hurt businesses and consumers alike.

3. Retaliation from China
Chinese Tariffs on U.S. Goods: If the U.S. imposed such a large tariff on China, it's almost certain that China would retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. goods. This could affect key U.S. industries like agriculture (soybeans, pork, etc.), aerospace, and automobiles. For example, China has historically imposed tariffs on American agricultural products during trade disputes, and these could be expanded to other sectors as well.

Trade War Escalation: A 104% tariff could trigger a full-blown trade war between the two largest economies in the world. This could lead to even more tariffs, further harming global trade and creating uncertainty in the markets.

4. Global Economic Disruptions
Disrupted Global Supply Chains: China is deeply integrated into the global supply chain, not just for the U.S. but for many other countries. A 104% tariff would disrupt trade flows and could lead to delays or shortages of goods in other parts of the world, not just in the U.S. and China.

Investment Shifts: A trade war of this magnitude could scare off foreign investment. Companies might look to relocate manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs, leading to shifts in where global production occurs, with potential impacts on countries like Vietnam, India, or Mexico, which could see an influx of manufacturing.

5. Potential Job Losses in the U.S.
Export-Dependent Jobs: Jobs in industries that depend on exporting goods to China would be particularly hard-hit. This includes sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and even technology. U.S. farmers, for instance, saw significant losses during the 2018-2019 trade war with China, and a larger tariff would likely exacerbate this issue.

Supply Chain and Retail Jobs: The increased costs of imported goods could lead U.S. retailers to reduce their inventory or even cut jobs. Similarly, supply chain workers could face layoffs if demand for Chinese components drops or if companies move production elsewhere to avoid tariffs.

6. Impact on China
Economic Slowdown: China would also be significantly affected by such a high tariff, as the U.S. is one of its largest trading partners. Exports to the U.S. would become more expensive, hurting Chinese businesses that rely on this market. This could slow down China's economy and lead to reduced industrial output.

Retaliatory Measures: As mentioned, China would likely retaliate by imposing tariffs on U.S. goods, which could further harm American industries. Additionally, China might target U.S. companies operating in China, affecting tech giants like Apple, Google, and others.

Shifting Trade Relationships: China may seek to strengthen trade ties with other countries to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. This could involve increasing trade with the EU, Southeast Asia, or Africa, leading to changes in the global trade landscape.

7. Political and Diplomatic Consequences
Diplomatic Strain: A 104% tariff would severely strain U.S.-China relations and could have ripple effects on global diplomacy. It could damage cooperation on critical global issues such as climate change, security, and international health efforts.

Domestic Backlash: In the U.S., such an extreme tariff could generate political backlash, especially from businesses and industries that would be hurt by the increased costs and supply chain disruptions. U.S. consumers would also feel the impact of higher prices, potentially leading to protests or calls for changes in trade policy.

8. Long-Term Consequences for Global Trade
Global Trade Reconfiguration: A 104% tariff on China would send shockwaves through the global trading system. Other countries might attempt to negotiate with the U.S. to avoid such tariffs or to secure their own favorable trade deals. Countries that rely on exports to both the U.S. and China could find themselves caught in the crossfire.

Encouraging Protectionism: Such a move could set a dangerous precedent, encouraging other countries to adopt more protectionist policies. This could lead to a reduction in global trade and economic integration, which has been a key driver of global economic growth over the past few decades.

In Summary:
A 104% tariff on China would likely have severe economic consequences, not just for the U.S. and China, but for the entire world. It would lead to higher consumer prices, disruption to supply chains, retaliatory tariffs, potential job losses, and strained international relations. While it might benefit certain domestic industries in the short term, the long-term impact would likely be negative for the global economy, with lasting consequences for global trade and economic cooperation.
" See. Even ChatGPT understands, how bad this will be! "
#Tariffs #ChatGPT #Trade #Economy #Business #Tax #Economy #China #Usa #UnitedStates #America #Jobs
Public
Yle News

Wednesday's papers: Trade war woes, Americans fleeing Trump, and White House notches Finland as a win

The impact of US President Donald Trump's policies dominates Finnish newspaper headlines on Wednesday morning.

yle.fi/a/74-20154825

News · Wednesday's papers: Trade war woes, Americans fleeing Trump, and White House notches Finland as a winThe impact of US President Donald Trump's policies dominates Finnish newspaper headlines on Wednesday morning.
#Media#ForeignPolicy#DomesticAffairs
Public
R. Scott Pert

#DonaldTrump #Tariffs

It's worth noting that #China supplies approximately 95% of all intermediate inputs for American industrial sectors, highlighting the deep integration of the two economies. This level of interdependence presents significant challenges for any efforts aimed at decoupling.

> Globalisation is a far, far bigger deal than you think
edconway.substack.com/p/global #economy #US #TradeWar #globalisation #supplychain #trade
@fenixmaster

graphic.
Public *
⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

someone¹ is furiously dumping US treasuries (AKA "US debt" AKA "the most secure store of value on earth") on the open market, driving interest rates 🚀🌖 and freaking everyone on fintwit the fuck out (interest rates, which go up in response to selling pressure, don't usually move this fast, especially at this time of day).

Worth mentioning that #ScottBessent said that the goal Trump’s 5D chess move w/#tariffs was to drive the rate on the 10 yr treasuries *down* to make it easier for Americans to afford houses etc. Needles to say, up is the opposite of down.

"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market so I can scare the shit out of everybody."

- James Carville

¹ maybe China [edit] or a japanese bank that just blew up on a massive treasury position (TBD).

chart showing interest rates on the 10 year US treasury bill up 5% to 4.5094%/yr in the last few hours
Spencer Hakimian & o - .~ @SpencerHakimian *JAPAN MOF, BOJ, FSA TO HOLD MEETING AT 4PM JST Yeah somebody in Japan got fucking blown out. No reason to be saying this otherwise. 1:03 AM - Apr 9, 2025 - 137.8K Views
#bonds#uspol#eupol
ExploreLive feeds
About