Salut mes p'tits Mastoufoux du soir, Un point #sst et #enso : Deux pour le prix d'un...
Il faut dire que les températures des eaux des océans sont à des niveaux records.
Les SST moyennes de 2025 suivent la courbe de 2023, année de ElNino....bref, stratosphérique.
La méditerranée sort d'une période de record de température jamais enregistrée à date.
ENSO en mode neutre et durablement à mon avis.
#vereinfachteSprache
El Niño wird durch den #Klimawandel extremer. Das Wetterphänomen bringt weltweit #Trockenheit und #Überschwemmungen. Wie wirkt sich dabei die globale Erwärmung aus? Welche Risiken ergeben sich für die betroffenen Länder? Möchtest du mehr darüber wissen, wie El Niño das Wetter beeinflusst? Eine Erklärung findest Du im Artikel. #ElNiño #Klimawandel #Extremwetter #ENSO
Die erwartete La Niña blieb aus. Stattdessen dominieren #ENSO-neutrale Bedingungen, die eine aktive #Hurrikansaison begünstigen könnten.
Durch wärmere Ozeane steigt das Risiko heftiger #Stürme, die auch weit ins Landesinnere vordringen können. Der #Klimawandel verändert die Grundlagen für #Wetterprognosen und macht extreme #Wetterereignisse wahrscheinlicher.
#Buchtipp: Grundwissen für Erwachsene findet Ihr in "Der #Klimawandel für Einsteiger", ISBN: 978-3-738-63782-3
the meteorologists have called it.
the very weak La Nina that stuck around for a whole 3 months has dissipated
and we're back to ENSO neutral.
#wx #SeaSurfaceTemperatures #ENSO
https://apnews.com/article/la-nina-el-nino-climate-drought-9c357862ffdd8b0eb67e315c944a1707
Latest ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) forecast is out. The verdict is that the minor La Niña that existed the past few months is now gone. We are in “Neutral" conditions for the forseeable future, likely all the way to Fall and maybe next Winter.
Better chance of another La Niña next summer than El Niño, but the best chance is for Neutral conditions.
#LaNiña #ElNiño #ENSO #PNW #PortAlberni #BC #bcstorm
The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events
Extreme hydroclimate events, such as droughts, floods, and heavy rainfall, account for a substantial portion of weather-related disasters in the United States, leading to significant socio-economic losses involving agriculture, water resources, and public health, among others.
#ENSO #drought #flood #weather
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/the-growing-impact-of-enso-on-u-s-extreme-drought-and-flood-events/
#newsclimat #urgenceclimatique #climat
Mes p'tits Mastoufoux du soir,
Un point #sst et #enso
"" La probabilité de retour à des conditions dites « neutres (ne dénotant ni un épisode El Niño ni un épisode La Niña) s’élève à 60 % pour la période de mars à mai » et « atteint 70 % pour la période d’avril à juin ». "
""Oceans off Australia's west remain much warmer than average while those in the north have cooled; the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole remain neutral ""
Retour à des conditions neutres pour l'Enso , sans jamais avoir été totalement en La Nina. L'épisode fût très bref en janvier à - 0,83° .
https://www.europesays.com/?p=1874087 Volatile Climate Splits Weather Agencies on El Niño Messaging #Climate #ClimateChange #ElNino #ENSO #GlobalWarming #LaNina #WeatherForecasting
#LaNiña ist da – aber schwach 
Die #Meeresoberflächentemperaturen im tropischen #Pazifik liegen aktuell 0,7 °C unter dem Durchschnitt, was zu veränderten #Wetterbedingungen weltweit führen kann.
Während es in #Australien und #Indonesien mehr regnet, drohen #Dürre in Südamerika und trockenes Wetter im Süden der #USA.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153917/la-nina-is-here
Relax - and enjoy your day!
Curled up kitten - handmade minimalist ink drawing
--> https://karen-kaspar.pixels.com/featured/curled-up-kitten-karen-kaspar.html
edit: added another image.
https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10455
Amazing!
And #openaccess °
Also, the references in the paper are a treasure trove.
20,000 days in the life of a clam shell 10 mio years ago in the Indonesian Throughway shows heavy rain events, seasons and what the authors say is a proto- #ENSO cyclicality, dominated by #LaNina .
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018224007004
When you hear "dominated by La Nina", is your mind jumping to AMOC slowdown and tipping? Mine does.
The longterm climate records stored in this clam species can indeed show early warning signals for AMOC's tipping behaviour. In this paper, Arellano-Nava and D.J. Reynolds et al 2024 look at up to 500 year old (!) clams from the Northern Atlantic, document the approach for finding Early Warning Signals, and see a slowdown since 1750 https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10455
Light slowdown since 1750 was already visible in Thornalley's #AMOC reconstruction from 2018. He used sortable silt grain sizes near Iceland and near the Canadian coast .
So a different proxy showing the same slowdown.
I took the liberty to superimpose Thornalley's and also Rahmstorf's AMOC reconstruction over vanWesten's AMOC in their freshwater experiment to show the striking similarity, see picture 3.
But a gradual, even slowdown isn't an actual Early Warning Signal for tipping behaviour where
"...it flickers, then it tips...".
For AMOC's tipping behaviour, van Westen's team last year identified various Atlantic locations in various depths, none are in the classical research locations in the Northern North Atlantic ! Particularly not in the #ColdBlob... See the two map images from the supplement with the AMOC schematic by Chidichimo et al 2023.
It's still only a preprint tho, first author Emma Smolders https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738
If I understand it correctly, the clam species lives on continental shelves in shallow-ish waters, not in the ocean abyss. So most locations Smolders et al identified are probably not good for using clams in reconstructing AMOC during the late #Holocene or in #paleoclimate. But some are, eg around the Canary Islands near Africa on 30°N, and many on the shelf along South America.
Especially important because the monitoring arrays (dashed lines in Chidichimo's schematic) have only been installed very recently. But clams can provide a continuous, annual to daily climate record everywhere – in shallow-ish waters.
I'm feeling actual excitement in the hope that researchers are now combing the ocean floor for these shells in the identified locations...
Wie beeinflusst der #Klimawandel das Wetterphänomen #ElNiño? 
Wird es durch die Erwärmung extremer und unberechenbarer? Mehr über die weltweiten Auswirkungen von #ENSO und die möglichen Risiken für unsere Zukunft im Beitrag.
#Wetter #Extremwetter #LaNiña #Klimaforschung #GlobaleErwärmung #Naturphänomene
last year's insane weather was blamed by some on El Nino
now, they have been predicting a weak La Nina to emerge for a few months, and it just never crossed the threshhold (maybe it has by now tho)
yet, sea surface temperatures? they're not cooling much.
I'm highly impressed by this awesome short-term #climate #reconstruction study by Iris Arndt and colleagues, who use a #giantclam from the #Miocene to study daily (!) climate variability in this warmer period, including potential #ENSO and #extreme #weather!
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018224007004
"The research findings indicate that stronger winds across the equatorial Pacific have caused a notable acceleration of westward near-surface currents by approximately 20 percent in the central equatorial Pacific.
These changes may influence regional and global climate patterns, potentially affecting the frequency and intensity of #ElNiño and #LaNiña events."
https://scitechdaily.com/pacific-ocean-currents-are-accelerating-and-it-could-change-global-climate-as-we-know-it/
#ENSO
While the Southeast of #Spain flooded again,
leaders of Southern Africa met to discuss disaster risk reduction from #ENSO events.
https://www.undrr.org/news/leaders-unite-address-impacts-el-nino-eastern-and-southern-africa
Good to see nation states working together. This past #ElNino has affected 60 million people directly in SouthWest #Africa with the effects of the drought and 5 millions with floods in the East. The incoming #LaNina turns the table: West Southern Africa will flood and the East run dry.
"Nearly 30 million people in Southern Africa face crisis levels of food insecurity."
"Since 2000, climate-related disasters have caused an estimated $540 billion in #LossAndDamage in the region, and such events are becoming more intense and frequent because of #ClimateChange
Sadly, no one spoke of getting to CO2zero asap. But getting independent from fossil fuel imports and related geo-political power games, and getting clean cooking fuel to everyone, and getting rid of toxic air pollution in cities are huge benefits.
I was super slow checking the weekly El Niño Southern Oscillation : Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions slides, but now that I do I see they've been impacted by hurricane Helene:
"9/30/24: Due to a data outage at NOAA NCEI, the weekly SST data has been temporarily
changed from OISSTv2.1 to UK Met OSTIA: https://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.gov.uk/ostia-
website/index.html . This impacts slides #4-9."
Circles play an important role in zen thought
Without corners there is no end and no beginning, just an uninterrupted and continuous journey.
'Ensō' (円相), a circle painted with a single stroke, symbolizes absolute enlightenment, freedom of the mind, elegance, and the universe.
Diskussion scheint wieder eröffnet:"Is El Niño-Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?"
In einem wärmeren Klima könnte das ENSO-Phänomen (#ElNiño-Southern Oscillation) in einen Zustand mit hoher Variabilität und fast ausschließlich extremen östlichen Pazifik-El Niños übergehen. Dies würde die sozioökonomischen Auswirkungen von #ENSO erheblich verstärken.
#Werbung: Grundwissen für Erwachsene: "Der Klimawandel für Einsteiger"
https://buchshop.bod.de/der-klimawandel-fuer-einsteiger-tino-eberl-9783757895099
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL107848
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