anlomedad<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://kolektiva.social/@DoomsdaysCW" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>DoomsdaysCW</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://ieji.de/@hanscees" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>hanscees</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://fediscience.org/@rahmstorf" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>rahmstorf</span></a></span> </p><p>Yeah. But first the heatwaves. 19°C and muggy at 6.30am here on 54°N in Germany. </p><p>The North Atlantic <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ocean</span></a> is back to "normal" global heating <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlan" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst</span><span class="invisible">_daily/?dm_id=natlan</span></a></p><p>simply because ...the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ColdBlob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ColdBlob</span></a> reappeared, indicator of a slowing <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/AMOC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AMOC</span></a> and heralding <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/heatwaves" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>heatwaves</span></a> with deaths & crop loss in Europe <br><a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-wt&wm_id=t2anom&year=2025" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">climatereanalyzer.org/clim/dai</span><span class="invisible">ly_maps/?dm_id=world-wt&wm_id=t2anom&year=2025</span></a></p><p>To laugh, to weep, to scream?</p>
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#ColdBlob
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anlomedad<p>More on Bananas from North Atlantic in 2023, here by <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/MattEngland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MattEngland</span></a>, Stefan <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Rahmstorf" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Rahmstorf</span></a> et al<br><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08903-5" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">nature.com/articles/s41586-025</span><span class="invisible">-08903-5</span></a></p><p>They also wrote prose on the Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-heat-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean-kickstarted-europes-hellish-2023-summer-now-we-know-what-caused-it-258061" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">theconversation.com/unpreceden</span><span class="invisible">ted-heat-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean-kickstarted-europes-hellish-2023-summer-now-we-know-what-caused-it-258061</span></a></p><p>Low surface wind speed led to shallower-than-normal ocean mixing which enabled heating the surface more.<br>Less clouds from shipping SO2 were only marginally responsible and only in small pockets.</p><p>Okay. But where did the wind go? <br>Surface wind is impacted by jetstream. And I think, the jetstream got diverted in June and July 2023 to Northern Greenland. Due to low spring snow cover in Eastern Canada which led to dry soil – which in turn gets hotter than wet soil. <br>And according to<br>"Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover over Canada" by <br>Preece et al 2023<br><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39466-6" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">nature.com/articles/s41467-023</span><span class="invisible">-39466-6</span></a><br>that hot soil in Eastern Canada leads to a High over Greenland – and a low over the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ColdBlob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ColdBlob</span></a> <br>East Canada was ablaze in June July 2023 suggesting dry and hence hot soil =perfect conditions for a North Greenland High, diverting the jetstream.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climatechange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ocean</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Atlantic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Atlantic</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Canada" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Canada</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CanadaFires" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CanadaFires</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/jetstream" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>jetstream</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Arctic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Arctic</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ArcticAmplification" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ArcticAmplification</span></a></p>
anlomedad<p>edit: added another image. <br><a href="https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10455" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c</span><span class="invisible">om/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10455</span></a></p><p>Amazing! <br>And <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/openaccess" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>openaccess</span></a> ° <br>Also, the references in the paper are a treasure trove. </p><p>20,000 days in the life of a clam shell 10 mio years ago in the Indonesian Throughway shows heavy rain events, seasons and what the authors say is a proto- <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ENSO" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ENSO</span></a> cyclicality, dominated by <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/LaNina" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LaNina</span></a> . <br><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018224007004" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">sciencedirect.com/science/arti</span><span class="invisible">cle/pii/S0031018224007004</span></a></p><p>When you hear "dominated by La Nina", is your mind jumping to AMOC slowdown and tipping? Mine does.</p><p>The longterm climate records stored in this clam species can indeed show early warning signals for AMOC's tipping behaviour. In this paper, Arellano-Nava and D.J. Reynolds et al 2024 look at up to 500 year old (!) clams from the Northern Atlantic, document the approach for finding Early Warning Signals, and see a slowdown since 1750 <a href="https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10455" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c</span><span class="invisible">om/doi/full/10.1002/lol2.10455</span></a></p><p>Light slowdown since 1750 was already visible in Thornalley's <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/AMOC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AMOC</span></a> reconstruction from 2018. He used sortable silt grain sizes near Iceland and near the Canadian coast .<br>So a different proxy showing the same slowdown. <br>I took the liberty to superimpose Thornalley's and also Rahmstorf's AMOC reconstruction over vanWesten's AMOC in their freshwater experiment to show the striking similarity, see picture 3. </p><p>But a gradual, even slowdown isn't an actual Early Warning Signal for tipping behaviour where <br>"...it flickers, then it tips...". </p><p>For AMOC's tipping behaviour, van Westen's team last year identified various Atlantic locations in various depths, none are in the classical research locations in the Northern North Atlantic ! Particularly not in the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ColdBlob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ColdBlob</span></a>... See the two map images from the supplement with the AMOC schematic by Chidichimo et al 2023. <br>It's still only a preprint tho, first author Emma Smolders <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> </p><p>If I understand it correctly, the clam species lives on continental shelves in shallow-ish waters, not in the ocean abyss. So most locations Smolders et al identified are probably not good for using clams in reconstructing AMOC during the late <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Holocene" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Holocene</span></a> or in <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/paleoclimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>paleoclimate</span></a>. But some are, eg around the Canary Islands near Africa on 30°N, and many on the shelf along South America. <br>Especially important because the monitoring arrays (dashed lines in Chidichimo's schematic) have only been installed very recently. But clams can provide a continuous, annual to daily climate record everywhere – in shallow-ish waters.</p><p>I'm feeling actual excitement in the hope that researchers are now combing the ocean floor for these shells in the identified locations...</p>
anlomedad<p>Guter Podcast zum Cold Blob und AMOC <a href="https://www.ardaudiothek.de/episode/iq-wissenschaft-und-forschung/raetselhafte-kaelteblase-geraet-der-subpolarwirbel-aus-dem-takt/bayern-2/13795411/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">ardaudiothek.de/episode/iq-wis</span><span class="invisible">senschaft-und-forschung/raetselhafte-kaelteblase-geraet-der-subpolarwirbel-aus-dem-takt/bayern-2/13795411/</span></a></p><p>Mit <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Rahmstorf" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Rahmstorf</span></a>, eh klar, aber noch eine Forscherin ist dabei, die speziell Interessantes erzählt. </p><p>Hab wieder was dazu gelernt. <br>Zum Beispiel ziemlich am Anfang, zum Subpolaren Wirbel, wie der überhaupt entsteht. <br>Durch Wind!<br>Der treibt das warme Golfstromwasser auf der Höhe New Yorks nach Osten. Und dort gibt es dann irgendwo so eine Art Kreuzung, wo der Wind nach Norden oder weiter nach Osten geht. <br>Wenn er nach Norden geht, treibt er damit auch den Wirbel an. <br>Und dann weht er auch mal vo Ost nach West... im Winter wohl..<br> <br>Im Filmchen sieht man die v-Wind Komponente in den Wintermonaten. V-Wind ist rot, wenn der Wind nach Norden weht. Und blau, wenn er nach Süden weht. Daten: <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">climatereanalyzer.org/research</span><span class="invisible">_tools/monthly_maps/</span></a></p><p>Der Subpolar Gyre / Cold Blob ist auch nich immer an derselben Stelle, fest eingemauert oder so. Nee! Das wabert alles so fuzzy rum, mal mehr rechts und mal mehr links. <br>Und je nachdem ob mehr rechts oder mehr links, gibt es in Zentraleuropa starke Hitze. </p><p>Muss auch gucken, dass ich ein paper von ihr finde. Vll steht ja in der "Introduction" noch mehr Interessantes um Subpolar Gyre drin. </p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/AMOC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AMOC</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ColdBlob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ColdBlob</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SPG" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SPG</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SubpolarGyre" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SubpolarGyre</span></a></p>
anlomedad<p>My girlie chart with 490ky years of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Milankovic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Milankovic</span></a> cycles, CO2, sea level, and the top line is d18O of a sediment core from within the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ColdBlob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ColdBlob</span></a>, see map. I think, it records AMOC shutdowns in the past. </p><p>Would be intriguing to know why it shut down. Eg, 427ka, "just" before the interglacial MIS11. <br>And why it not shut down during that very long interglacial which was ~as warm as the Holocene, <br>and had an ice-free West <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Greenland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Greenland</span></a> (with a leaf found just 2 years ago at rock-bottom of an ice core from there),</p><p>and why AMOC instead collapsed in the middle of the following <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/iceage" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>iceage</span></a>. </p><p>The very long interglacial MIS11 with its ice-free West Greenland and stable AMOC throughout tells me that the amount of freshwater input from melting ice on its own isn't the trigger for a collapse. But instead, the speed at which freshwater is added: very slowly like during <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/MIS11" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MIS11</span></a> won't do it. </p><p>Also intriguing: why the stuttering motor during the last glacial before the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Holocene" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Holocene</span></a>?</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/d18O" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>d18O</span></a> from sediment cores at other locations strictly follow the ups and downs of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/sealevel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>sealevel</span></a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CO2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CO2</span></a>. This one site <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/IODP" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>IODP</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/U1308" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>U1308</span></a> is exceptional. <br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/paleoclimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>paleoclimate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/AMOC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AMOC</span></a></p>
anlomedad<p>Rahmstorf's talk at <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EGU" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EGU</span></a> about his life's work, or rather, about one of the topics of his life's work and what others and him contributed to what is known of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/AMOC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AMOC</span></a> today <br><a href="https://youtu.be/HX7wAsdSE60" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">youtu.be/HX7wAsdSE60</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>At 14:30min or so, he mentions that his Bachelor student just worked out (or maybe repeated the results successfully) what happens at the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ColdBlob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ColdBlob</span></a>. Why is it colder there, what's the mechanism? <br>So the AMOC slows down and brings less and less warm water into that subarctic gyre South of Greenland. But the cold blob doesn't look cold due to warm water getting released more than compared with the rest of the North <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Atlantic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Atlantic</span></a> . It looks colder because it releases less heat to the atmosphere, precisely bc less warm water manages to enter the gyre. </p><p>And near the American coast, the opposite is observed: more heat is released there, so it looks orange. Also due to AMOC slowdown. * End of his short mentioning of this explanation.</p><p>This next part is my processing the info.</p><p>I had read this also in his recent paper. And stared at it for minutes but didn't get it. It took listening & watching to comprehend what he meant. </p><p>Still unclear: obviously, lotsa warm water is around the gyre, just waiting to be pulled into the roundabout. "I bought the ticket, now let me in!" <br>Why No Entry? Or why very limited entry? <br>Hm. Gotta think some more about it. </p><p>Maybe all that warm water abhores the cold blob. A no-go zone, maybe. </p><p>Or the access is limited bc it's full already... and ... oh, and the queue exists bc South of Iceland, the AMOC is too slow in pushing warm salty water down into the abyss. <br>If it were faster, it would manage to pull in water from within the gyre as well. </p><p>So the gyre and its cold blob isn't really part of what drives AMOC. <br>It just swivels happily around itself? <br>And whether its cold-er than its surrounding waters or of the same salinity and warmth doesn't matter, it'll go round and round anyway.<br>AMOC also doesn't need the gyre. When AMOC is faster, the blob disappears. When it's slower, the blob happens.</p><p>Ah. Due to it being cold-er, it attracts clouds bursting overhead. So it rains there more often than elsewhere bc it's cold-er, and it's cold-er bc there's only limited entry for warm water, depending on how fast the region North of the gyre can push the salty water into the abyss. </p><p>Okay. That might be it. But Rahmstorf's explanations ended at *. The rest is only me, doing a <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Tegtmeier" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Tegtmeier</span></a> , a working theory. Written down so it sticks and can later be compared to newly learned stuff.</p>
Markus Feilner (has moved)<p>Wenn ihr Euch über das warme Wetter wundert, lest mal zum Stichwort <a href="https://mastodon.cloud/tags/coldblob" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>coldblob</span></a> nach. Grüße aus dem kalten <a href="https://mastodon.cloud/tags/Cornwall" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Cornwall</span></a>. <a href="https://mastodon.cloud/tags/FR42" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FR42</span></a> </p><p><a href="https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/wetter-klima-april-rekord-hitze-1.6523331" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">sueddeutsche.de/wissen/wetter-</span><span class="invisible">klima-april-rekord-hitze-1.6523331</span></a></p>
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