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#chartsforfuture

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anlomedad<p>The promised plots. <br>I'll show data since 2003 only because only then did real measurements really kick off. Before that, measurements were so spotty with 1 in January in one year, then 3 years nothing, then 5 measurements in for example August and so on.<br>Data source for measurements is <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/NOAA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>NOAA</span></a> <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-database-select/dbsearch.html" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-oce</span><span class="invisible">an-database-select/dbsearch.html</span></a> </p><p>The other plot is from a <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ReAnalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ReAnalysis</span></a> called EN4.2 <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download-en4-2-2.html#c14_analyses" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/do</span><span class="invisible">wnload-en4-2-2.html#c14_analyses</span></a> <br> It is based on the same NOAA data, and goes back to 1900. EN4.2 has better quality assurance than my download. And EN4.2 is able to calculate the likely values in adjacent coordinates and adjacent months. </p><p>Among other Reanalyses, EN4.2 has also been used in the newest preprint by the Dutch team around <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/vanWesten" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>vanWesten</span></a>. It sees AMOC tip in 2065 in RCP8.5 and in 2085 in RCP4.5. But it is based on biased Reanalyses and known-to-be too stable <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CMIP6" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>CMIP6</span></a>: <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.19909" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">arxiv.org/pdf/2407.19909</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>Whereas the first new preprint by van Westen's team, which tips AMOC 2037-2064, uses only real measurements of the 3 dedicated monitoring arrays in the North, tropical and South <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Atlantic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>Atlantic</span></a>. <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> <br>Here, the caveat is: very short data series. </p><p>With measurements being so spotty, I only show monthly salinity 2003ff in down to 10m depth. And only from the area in the South Atlantic. Averaged on a 2 by 2 degree grid from Argentina's coast to longitude -48, and latitudes 40-48 South.</p><p>Sorry, not sorry: neither dataset shows a smoking gun. 😁<br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/FridaysForFuture" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>FridaysForFuture</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ChartsForFuture" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#<span>ChartsForFuture</span></a></p>