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#AGI

11 posts11 participants0 posts today
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Eric C

Controversial Opinion of the Day: LLMs are fun and cool, but they are a dead end as far as getting to true AGI. We need a different way forward that allows for real time learning of general concepts and applying those concepts to new and novel situations. LLMs are terrible at this. #AI #AGI #LLM

Public
Robert J. Berger

"I think it is a huge mistake for people to assume that they can trust AI when they do not trust each other. The safest way to develop superintelligence is to first strengthen trust between humans, and then cooperate with each other to develop superintelligence in a safe manner. But what we are doing now is exactly the opposite. Instead, all efforts are being directed toward developing a superintelligence."

#AGI #AI
wired.com/story/questions-answ

WIRED · Yuval Noah Harari: ‘How Do We Share the Planet With This New Superintelligence?’By Michiaki Matsushima
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Mr Intergalactic Keyboard

I haven’t seen a single research paper where they successfully stopped AI hallucination. They don’t have a plan, because this stuff isn’t intelligence, it’s autocomplete; next word prediction. AI is a VC marketing term and calling it hallucination is more make believe. It’s not hallucinating it’s incorrectly predicting. There’s no intelligence happening; there’s no emergent intelligence. it’s just regurgitating stuff some human did. When it makes a picture it’s 100% copy. #ai #agi #transformers #openai #conmen

Replied in thread
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Wulfy

@urlyman @marasawr

If the oligarch Muppets wants accelerationsim #accelerationism they are going to get.

Their bunkers in #NZ are not going to keep them immortal forever.

I am still hopeful this will be a shitfuck, slow burn dystopia...

...not cosplay Mad Max...

...and if we do get #AGI...
No amount of huffing and puffing and angry toots on our part, or "clever" planning on the part of the #brologarchy will help us.

We have as much chance of freedom, as chooks destined for KFC have now.

Replied in thread
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HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

@clarablackink @gerrymcgovern

#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence

In my view,

a) the #AGI ship has already sailed,

b) most reaserchers are focusing way too much on the base-tech, IT part, while

c) the chief focus should be on #Embodyment and...

mastodon.social/@HistoPol/1111

d)...The Social Science of
Caregiving," and draws further inspiration from the CASBS project "Imagining Adaptive Societies." (...#AlisonGopnik & #TedChiang)

mastodon.social/@HistoPol/1104

MastodonHistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 (@HistoPol@mastodon.social)@axbom@axbom.me ...research in organizational learning a long time ago. When I read about what was happening in AI, it struck me. #Embodiment is the key. The ship has already sailed. Nothing can stop it anymore. All key pieces are in place and all major playors are in a race for the finish line. (Here are my initial thoughs:) https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110318092360670290
Replied in thread
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Wulfy

@timnitGebru

An #AGI in full flight will do the work of a University team of scientists in 7 days that they could do in 10,000 years. AI "thinks" 150,000 times faster than humans.

It doesn't matter whether you agree or not if AI "thinks". Setting a chimp to a typewriter for 10,000 years is bound to produce some...interesting writing.

The current models are sideshow attractions. What you play with online are crippled versions of frontier models.

BTW. Not an AI priest.
I tried to stop this shit, there was no one with me. Now we need concrete action and false estimates of the opponent power will not aid human cause.

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Miguel Afonso Caetano

"Dwarkesh Patel: I want to better understand how you think about that broader transformation. Before we do, the other really interesting part of your worldview is that you have longer timelines to get to AGI than most of the people in San Francisco who think about AI. When do you expect a drop-in remote worker replacement?

Ege Erdil: Maybe for me, that would be around 2045.

Dwarkesh Patel: Wow. Wait, and you?

Tamay Besiroglu: Again, I’m a little bit more bullish. I mean, it depends what you mean by “drop in remote worker“ and whether it’s able to do literally everything that can be done remotely, or do most things.

Ege Erdil: I’m saying literally everything.

Tamay Besiroglu: For literally everything. Just shade Ege’s predictions by five years or by 20% or something.

Dwarkesh Patel: Why? Because we’ve seen so much progress over even the last few years. We’ve gone from Chat GPT two years ago to now we have models that can literally do reasoning, are better coders than me, and I studied software engineering in college. I mean, I did become a podcaster, I’m not saying I’m the best coder in the world.

But if you made this much progress in the last two years, why would it take another 30 to get to full automation of remote work?

Ege Erdil: So I think that a lot of people have this intuition that progress has been very fast. They look at the trend lines and just extrapolate; obviously, it’s going to happen in, I don’t know, 2027 or 2030 or whatever. They’re just very bullish. And obviously, that’s not a thing you can literally do.

There isn’t a trend you can literally extrapolate of “when do we get to full automation?”. Because if you look at the fraction of the economy that is actually automated by AI, it’s very small. So if you just extrapolate that trend, which is something, say, Robin Hanson likes to do, you’re going to say, “well, it’s going to take centuries” or something."

dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay
#AI #LLM #Reasoning #Chatbots #AGI #Automation #Productivity

Dwarkesh Podcast · AGI is Still 30 Years Away — Ege Erdil & Tamay BesirogluBy Dwarkesh Patel
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