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Alright, so Assad is falling. It's now clear that Russia is absolutely incapable to do anything (besides bombing a few hospitals) when one of their protégé falls. Who's next?

@rafi0t the thing is tho that they'd been a hemorrhage point for *ages* ..i'm not sure this is a great departure quite as much as being done with Assad's ability to actually manage his mess for more than a decade.

Walter van Holst

@quinn @rafi0t There is the centuries old Russian obsession with access to seas, preferably unfrozen ones. Losing Tartus must sting in similar ways as losing Port Arthur did.

@whvholst @rafi0t but like Port Arthur, it doesn't help to throw good money after bad.

@quinn @rafi0t I think it is less a money than a manpower, equipment and logistics question. Putin needs all of that more desperately in Ukraine.

@whvholst @rafi0t sorry, it's an American saying from poker, about keeping resources going after it doesn't make anymore sense. sunk cost fallacy.

@quinn @rafi0t Am aware of the idiom. My point that is about ability, not willingness, still stands.